The federal government created an eloquent solution to the problem of carbon emissions and climate change. Their backstop GHG Act allows the provinces to create a number of homegrown solutions in order to deal with emissions within their own jurisdictions.
Ontario created perhaps the best and most integrated solution to the problem of emissions. The Ontario Climate Change Mitigation and Low-Carbon Economy Act, 2016 (the Ontario Act) established a standard cap and trade system described in the earlier article. In addition, the system integrates with the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) which provides access to an even greater market to buy and sell the most cost effective carbon credits.
The Ontario system compared a number of policy alternatives in its Five Year Climate Change Action Plan. The most cost effective alternative used the existing cap and trade system integrated with WCI. The policy concluded that the existing system would result by the year 2020 in a carbon charge of $18 in 2016 dollars.
We previously described how the federal government uses a solid constitutional ground to establish a national carbon charge. Ontario intends to argue against this ground with all available resources. This would provide great relief to Saskatchewan in its intent to also contest the GHG Act. The other provinces may follow suit, but from a risk management perspective Ontario and Saskatchewan businesses would be prudent to prepare for the federal carbon tax of $20 tonne in 2019 and establish the necessary processes and infrastructure now.
The Ontario government appears to be in the enviable position of avoiding the political cost of pricing carbon and can throw the entire responsibility on the federal government. Instead of businesses and consumers facing a potential Ontario based $18 cost per tonne of carbon by 2020, they will have the federal government’s $50 tonne instead. Interestingly, the Ontario government would be receiving greater revenues under the federal system.
The federal system would also be revenue neutral, but the Ontario government would not be as constrained in the use of the revenues. They still might model the innovations and adaptations outlined in the Ontario Climate Change Action Plan, but there is no indication that they plan to do so. Indeed, the funds could go directly back to the entities paying the tax. The carbon pricing signal would be lost, and Ontario would have lost a tremendous opportunity to invest in other innovations to shift into the low carbon economy.
However, Ontario regulated entities purchased $2.8 billion worth of credits already. Ford appears to be pleased that companies would not have to incur these costs in the future. The costs under the carbon tax would be even greater. The federal government would likely not be in a position to reimburse Ontario businesses the cost they have for purchasing credits that may extend as far as 2021. These revenues would have likely gone to the Ontario government and a portion to the WCI. The revenues generated in Ontario would have flowed mainly towards funding the various emissions reductions programs.
WCI does not provide information as to whether Ontario was a net purchaser or seller of carbon credits. An estimate by Ontario’s auditor general Bonnie Lysyk estimated that in 2016 that Ontario businesses would have to pay $466 million for WCI facilitated allowances.
Under section 33 of the Ontario Act, the Minister may retire emission allowances from circulation or may cancel Ontario emission allowances in accordance with the regulations in such circumstances as may be prescribed. A less confrontation approach would simply be to conclude the Ontario Cap and Trade program naturally. Businesses would likely have no further need for these emission allowances since the province would no longer need to cap the level of emissions coming from the regulated industries.
Effective July 3rd, 2018 the provincial government revoked the cap and trade regulation, prohibiting all trading of emission allowances. Their Carbon website does not provide any further helpful information. The GreenON rebate program will be wound down, but the program will honor arrangement where contracts were signed before June 19th, 2018 for work to be completed by October 31st, 2018.
Ontario contemplates formation of a fund to invest in emission reduction technologies. With the dismantling of the Ontario Cap and Trade, The federal government intends to review the $420 million transfer to Ontario under the Low Carbon Economy Leadership fund.
Since the federal carbon charge is a separate type of system, we would anticipate business having to pay and collect this amount commencing January 1st, 2019. We would also anticipate the carbon tax running concurrently with the no longer required but already purchased carbon credits by Ontario regulated entities.